AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE TREND ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF SURKHANDARYA REGION, UZBEKISTAN
This study analyzed monthly average temperature variations at five meteorological stations in the Surkhandarya region using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Mann-Kendall change point method. At the Baysun station, the most significant increase was observed in July (Z = 4.40, p < 0.001, Sen’s slope Q = 0.134). June also showed a positive trend (Z = 2.31, p < 0.05, Q = 0.060). At the Denau station, temperatures increased in July (Z = 2.56, p < 0.05, Q = 0.075) but decreased in October (Z = -2.54, p < 0.05, Q = -0.154). The Termez station recorded a significant change in July (Z = 3.73, p < 0.01, Q = 0.11). In Sherabad, a notable trend was observed in September (Z = 2.71, Q = 0.10), while in Shurchi, significant changes were detected in both June (Z = 2.26, Q = 0.07) and July (Z = 3.01, Q = 0.07).
Yue, S., & Hashino, M. (2003). Long-term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(3), 587-596.
2. Hamed, K. H., & Rao, A. R. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1-4), 182-196.
3. Burn, D. H., & Elnur, M. A. (2002). Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 255(1-4), 107-122.
4. Kahya, E., & Karabork, H. (2001). Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: Trends and variability. Hydrological Processes, 15(11), 2051-2066.
5. Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20(9), 2011-2026.
6. Zhang, X., & Cong, Z. (2014). Trends of precipitation intensity and frequency in the Yellow River Basin, China, detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Hydrology Research, 45(3), 419-429.
7. Shrestha, M. L., & Moore, J. N. (2009). Trends in temperature extremes in the Nepal Himalaya and its variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114(D17), D17109.
8. Zhang, Q., Li, J., Singh, V. P., & Xu, C. Y. (2013). Copula-based analysis of hydrological extremes and possible changes under climate change in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 18(6), 698-709.
Copyright (c) 2025 «ACTA NUUz»
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
.jpg)
1.png)
