Numerical Modeling of the Impact of Online Reviews and Negative Information on Tourist Visit Intention
This article develops a nonlinear dynamic model for assessing the joint effect of on-
line reviews, ratings, communication activity, and negative information on tourist visit intention.
The model contains five dimensionless state indices: destination image, visit intention, communica-
tion influence, online-rating influence, and negative-information pressure. Numerical solutions are
obtained using the classical fourth-order Runge–Kutta method. Five scenarios are compared over
sixty conditional time units: baseline, stronger communication, improved online ratings, growth of
negative information, and integrated management. Using a single consistent parameter set, the final
visit-intention index increases by about 19.5% under stronger communication, by 33.8% when the
rating channel improves, and by 58.3% under integrated management, whereas stronger negative in-
formation reduces it by about 23.0%. The results support the use of the model as a scenario-analysis
tool for digital destination-image management.
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