A FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATING FISCAL RISKS INTO THE ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FINANCIAL SECURITY

Авторы

  • Elmurodov Shohzod Shavkatovich National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulug‘bek, Teacher of the finance and credit department

Аннотация

Fiscal risks increasingly shape regional financial security amid fiscal decentralisation and economic uncertainty. This study proposes a risk-integrated framework that incorporates budget imbalance, debt sustainability, revenue volatility, and contingent liabilities into a composite index. Using regional fiscal data from Uzbekistan, the results reveal an inverse relationship between fiscal risk exposure and financial security, demonstrating the analytical and policy value of a risk-oriented assessment approach.

Библиографические ссылки

1. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PF-60, dated January 28, 2022. On the Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan for 2022–2026. Tashkent.

2. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PF-158, dated September 11, 2023. On the Strategy “Uzbekistan–2030”. Tashkent.

3. Resolution of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PP-4848, dated October 7, 2020. On Measures to Further Improve the Budget System and Strengthen Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations. Tashkent.

4. International Monetary Fund. (2008). Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management. IMF Policy Paper. Washington, D.C.

5. International Monetary Fund. (2016). Analysing and Managing Fiscal Risks: Best Practices. IMF Policy Paper. Washington, D.C.

6. International Monetary Fund. (2023). Fiscal Monitor: Resilient Public Finances in Uncertain Times. Washington, D.C.

7. World Bank. (2016). Contingent Liabilities: Risk Management for Governments. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. Washington, D.C.

8. World Bank. (2022). Subnational Fiscal Sustainability and Risk Management. Washington, D.C.

9. Allen, R., Hemming, R., & Potter, B. (2013). The International Handbook of Public Financial Management. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

10. Musgrave, R. A., & Musgrave, P. B. (1989). Public Finance in Theory and Practice. McGraw-Hill, New York.

11. Abulkosimov, H., & Tagay, A. (2024). Issues of Ensuring Financial Security in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Yangi O‘zbekiston Journal, No. 7, pp. 12–18.

12. Imanova, U. (2021). Methodological Approaches to Managing Local Budget Financial Resources in Regional Development. Tashkent.

13. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2024). Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy and Macro-Fiscal Risk Assessment. Tashkent.

Опубликован

17-01-2026

Как цитировать

Shohzod Shavkatovich, E. (2026). A FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATING FISCAL RISKS INTO THE ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FINANCIAL SECURITY. «ЭКОНОМИКА НОВОГО УЗБЕКИСТАНА», 12(14). извлечено от http://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/economyuzb/article/view/10581